The Restoration Trap Part I: - Charles X, Donald Trump, and the Cost of Repeating History

Back in college, I took a politics class on revolutionary France. Not just Robespierre and guillotines, but what came after: republic, monarchy, collapse, and more monarchy, etc. That's when I first encountered Charles X (or Charles the Dull), the last Bourbon king of France. At the time, I thought of him as just another bland royal with a bad legacy. But these days? He looks a lot like the current occupant of the White House.

Many compare President Trump to the Austrian Corporal that had a hold on Germany in the 1930s and early 1940s. I get it—the nationalist tone, the loyalty tests, the disregard for institutions. But if you're going to pull from European history, Charles X might be the better analog.

Charles X ruled France from 1824 to 1830, and spent his time in power trying to return France to a bygone "golden" age. He:

• Re-instituted royal indemnities to aristocrats dispossessed during the Revolution
• ​Re-empowered the Catholic Church in education, law, and public offices
• Pushed censorship and curtailed freedom of the press
• Dissolved the Paris National Guard, which was loyal to the people, not the crown (Britannica)

​Eventually, his obsession with restoring the past and bypassing elected bodies triggered the July Revolution of 1830. After just three days of unrest, Charles abdicated and fled.

Donald Trump’s playbook doesn’t look so different:

• He idealizes a past that didn’t exist the way he remembers it.
• He routinely threatens institutions that don’t conform to his wishes—the DOJ, military, courts.
• He has made no secret of wanting to punish political enemies and fire non-loyal federal workers (Brookings, 2024).
• His allies at Project 2025 plan to gut civil protections and consolidate executive power (Project 2025).

Like Charles, Trump seems focused on loyalty over competency, legacy over liberty, and personal grievance over public service.

Where This Could Go?

History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes (Mark Twain) . Charles X's France didn’t fall into civil war, but it did spiral into political instability, reactionary succession, and eventually authoritarianism under Napoleon III. His attempt to restore an imagined past created a vacuum of leadership and legitimacy.

Will the second Trump term follow a similar path? Maybe not in three days like the July Revolution—but it could erode American institutions to the point where something more unstable replaces them.

This is Part I of a two-part series. In Part II, I’ll explore what Charles X’s downfall and the July Revolution teach us about resistance, resilience, and recovery.

​Sources & Citations:

• Britannica – Charles X
• Alpha History – Charles X and the July Ordinances
• Brookings – Trump and Unitary Executive Power
• Project 2025 – The Next Conservative Presidency Blueprint
• Washington Post – Trump’s Second-Term Plans
• NPR – Charles X and the July Revolution