In Part I: The Quiet Drift, the United States began to come apart not with a single crisis, but through a slow and quiet unraveling. Fiscal collapse, deepening political dysfunction, and the erosion of federal cohesion hollowed out the center. By the end, the flag still flew, but the country it represented mainly existed in name.

Part II: The Fracture followed the moment when that fragile framework finally gave way. Military command splintered, deterrence fractured, and the first regional blocs emerged — the Pacific Compact, the Southern Compact, the New England Coalition, each with its system of governance and vision for survival. The world adjusted to America’s absence, sometimes with relief, sometimes with unease.

Now, in Part III: The Breakaway, the focus shifts to what rose from the wreckage. Native nations reclaim sovereignty and, in some cases, expand it. Bloc governments consolidate power, strike trade deals, and rebuild infrastructure on their terms. Borders are redrawn as Mexico regains the Gadsden Purchase without firing a shot, Canada extends its influence deep into the north, and China, Russia, Cuba, and the EU move in quietly, not with armies, but with contracts, ports, technology, and capital.

In the background, the fate of America’s nuclear arsenal remains a destabilizing question, with some warheads becoming tools of regional influence and others sitting in places where neglect threatens disaster. A generation grows up having never known the Union, pledging loyalty to something else, or nothing at all.

This is the story of the post-American era: not restoration, but a patchwork of sovereignties learning, however uneasily, to share the same ground.

👉 Read it here: How It Ends — Part III: The Breakaway

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” — Mark Twain

As a Navy veteran, lifelong student of history, and someone who’s spent decades navigating complex systems in the business world, I’ve always believed that pattern recognition is one of the most underrated skills we can cultivate. That’s why I wrote this new white paper: History Rhymes: What the Fall of the Roman Republic Tells Us About American Polarization.

It’s not alarmist, and it’s not a screed. It’s a sober, sourced, and accessible comparison between the late stages of the Roman Republic and the growing dysfunction in today’s American democracy.

Rome didn’t fall in a single coup—it frayed over decades. Economic disparity, elite corruption, political violence, and populist spectacle slowly unraveled a system that had lasted five centuries. I explore how:

• The destruction of Carthage brought wealth and inequality that hollowed out Rome’s middle class. Sound familiar?
• Political norms broke down. Roman leaders weaponized mobs. Today, we’ve seen January 6.
• Populists rose, but didn’t always prevail. Trump is no Julius Caesar, but his impact may have cleared the road for someone who could be.
• The Roman Republic ignored its last chances for reform. Do we still have time?

This paper isn’t a history lesson for the sake of nostalgia. It’s a roadmap and a warning.

📄 Read the full essay on my Substack here:
History Rhymes: What the Fall of the Roman Republic Tells Us About American Polarization

📝 For context, I’ve also previously written about Trump and Charles X—a Bourbon king whose stubbornness paved the way for a different kind of revolution.

Sometimes, history is a mirror. Other times, it’s a caution sign. Let’s not ignore either.